Before I get into what I planned to talk about this week, I just wanted to take this opportunity to congratulate the Grand Rapids Griffins on winning the 2013 Calder Cup! That is a huge accomplishment, and it is a testament to how well this Red Wings organization has developed prospects over the past few years. Also, congratulations to Tomas Tatar on being the MVP of the AHL playoffs. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can contribute to the Red Wings next year.
Anyway, back to what I was planning on discussing for this week’s post. During this summer, teams will have the ability to buy out players using the NHL’s amnesty clause. There seems to be a lot of people who are confused about what the amnesty clause is and how it works, so here’s an explanation of it in my own words to try and make it as simple as possible for you.
First, here is some background information on why the amnesty clause exists. The lockout this season was due to the players association and owners debating how money will be divided between them. With that, there were a lot of changes made to the league so it functions better overall. This includes a new set of parameters for player contracts and a new lower salary cap. Lowering the salary cap would be unfair to teams who made expensive deals with players in the past expecting that the salary cap would be close to what is was this past season ($70,200,000). The new salary cap will be $64,300,000, so it will decrease by nearly $6,000,000. Because of this, the league has allowed each team to have two amnesty buyouts. These buyouts will not count against the salary cap, and they can take place either this summer or next summer. After that, there are no more amnesty buyouts. If a player is bought out, they cannot resign with the team that bought them out for a year.
Simply put, you can get rid of two players over the next two summers for free as far as the salary cap is concerned. The question now is, who do we get rid of? In my opinion, we should use no more than one buyout this summer. I’ve heard a lot of talk about buying out Johan Franzen, and I understand why people would be in favor of this. He is wildly inconsistent, he is the 3rd highest paid forward on the team at a cap hit of $3,954,545, and he is signed until the year 2020. Some people say that his decline has begun, and that contract will be terrible in the future. I can agree with every one of those points, but I also think it would be stupid to buy him out… this summer.
Franzen is still playing well, and was on pace for 28 goals in this past shortened season. There’s no reason to go into next season without him. We need to watch him next season, and reevaluate him at that point. That is the time to buy him out if he is still underperforming. If he plays well though, I think we should keep him beyond that. However, that’s why I think it would be smart to only buy out one player this summer, so we have options next summer.
So, who do we buy out if we are only going to use one? My pick is Mikael Samuelsson. Sure, he is only signed through next year, but he is making $3,000,000. That’s too much for what he can bring to the table, and I think that money can be used elsewhere.
Todd Bertuzzi might retire, so there would be no need to buy him out. Plus, if he doesn’t, I think he brings more to the table than Samuelsson because of his leadership, grit, and shootout ability. His cap hit is also lower than Samuelsson at $2,075,000 through next year.
Carlo Colaiacovo is a strong buyout candidate. The only reason I choose Samuelsson over Colaiacovo is because Colaiacovo has a lower cap hit, $2,500,000 through next year. Maybe he can be included in some sort of trade instead.
Jordin Tootoo gives the team some sandpaper which is something we don’t have a lot of. His cap hit is lower too at $1,900,000 for the next two years.
All the other players who are not free agents I think are the best options this team has, and are worth the money. This includes Kyle Quincey and Jonathan Ericsson.
This leaves the free agent market, and trades. We have a lot of defenseman, and a fairly deep prospect pool at the forward position, so I could definitely see some pieces traded away for a proven goal scorer this summer. Time will tell with trades, because they can be very unpredictable. With the amnesty clause this summer even more so.
The Red Wings also have a number of players that will be free agents this summer. Some notables include Valtteri Filppula, Dan Cleary, Gustav Nyquist, Jakub Kindl, Brendan Smith, Damien Brunner, and Joakim Andersson.
Filppula will likely be asking for too much, so we can let him walk. Not to mention he had a poor year this past year, and we have younger players ready to step up and play his role.
I will miss Cleary, but it’s not worth it to sign him. There are too many up and coming good players that his leadership and grit isn’t worth the money and roster spot. However, I would not be surprised to see Ken Holland bring him back for a short term deal that is inexpensive. I suppose if they can keep him for under $1.5 M then it would be okay, but it’s not my first choice.
Everyone else I want to keep. Nyquist and Kindl played very well this past season, and I believe they will be very good for us for years. Brunner was among the top goal scorers on the team this year, and we need goal scoring. Smith has potential to be a very good defenseman in the future, but he still has some growing to do. Andersson is a good bottom line center who has size and very good defensive awareness.
Some free agents outside of the Red Wings organization I have heard people talking about targeting are Bryan Bickell, Nathan Horton, Mark Streit (he has since signed with Philadelphia), and Viktor Stalberg among others. I’ll just say right now that I don’t want us to target a defenseman. We have too many as is, so I am not sad that we didn’t get Streit. The only way I will change my opinion and think that we need a defenseman is if a trade is made that leaves a hole. Then all bets are off.
Although I would be okay with Bickell, Horton, and Stalberg, they are not ideal, and definitely not my top free agent targets. I think of them more as last resort type signings. Horton would be the closest to ideal of the bunch, and of the three I would have the least problem with us signing him. The problem with him is that he has had concussion issues. He has missed a lot of time with injuries, and I don’t know if it’s the best idea to sign a player like that. Stalberg is basically another Filppula as far as point production, and I have heard that he isn’t a great locker room guy. He has disputed his playing time with coaches in the past, and that sounds selfish to me. Bickell is a bit of a hothead in my opinion. Plus, Bickell is not a goal scorer and he will probably command too much money for what he is. I think it would be redundant to have Bickell and Abdelkader on the same team.
I believe there will be a lot of players available this summer due to teams buying out their bad contracts. There is no telling exactly who will be bought out, but one possibility is Dany Heatley.
Heatley is a sniper with size, and he is a former 50 goal scorer in this league. However, his point production tapered off the past few years while playing in San Jose and Minnesota. He has a cap hit of $7,500,000 through next year. He is underperforming based on his contract, and he is only 32 years old. If he is bought out, I would love to see the Wings make a run at him. Playing with the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg could really help him out. Also, Heatley will come at a bit of a discount because he will already expect to make less than he has been making, and since he is 32, his contract can be front loaded so the cap hit will be even less.
For those of you who are not familiar with how cap hits work, here’s a quick explanation. The cap hit is the average amount of money per year that a player makes over the duration of his contract. For instance, in the case of Dany Heatley, he could make $7 M for the first 3 years of a contract, and then since he will be getting older and it’s expected that his production will drop off, he can be paid $5 M for a year, then $3 M for a year, then $1 M during the last year of his contract. This an example of front loading a contract since he is making more money in the first few years of it. Keep in mind, these numbers are fictional, and I don’t know what he would really sign for. Next, you add up the total money and divide it by the total years. In this instance, this is a $30 M contact that spans 6 years which equates to a $5 M cap hit. The cap hit is the number that counts against the salary cap.
Obviously it’s hard to predict who will be available, but the lineup I’m posting below would be a potential scenario. My opinions will be changed once I see who actually is available and what trades are made, but at this point I would be okay with this:
Forwards:
Justin Abdelkader ($1.8 M) Pavel Datsyuk ($6.7 M) Dany Heatley ($5.1 M)
Johan Franzen ($3.95 M) Henrik Zetterberg ($6.08 M) Gustav Nyquist ($2 M)
Tomas Tatar ($0.84 M) Darren Helm ($2.125 M) Damien Brunner ($2.5 M)
Drew Miller ($1.35 M) Joakim Andersson ($1 M) Todd Bertuzzi ($2.075 M
Jordin Tootoo ($1.9 M) Cory Emmerton ($0.53 M) Patrick Eaves ($1.2 M)
Defensemen:
Niklas Kronwall ($4.75 M) Jonathan Ericsson ($3.25 M)
Jakub Kindl ($1.6 M) Danny DeKeyser ($1.35 M)
Kyle Quincey ($3.775 M) Brendan Smith ($1.3 M)
Carlo Colaiacovo ($2.5 M) Brian Lashoff ($0.725 M)
Goalies:
Jimmy Howard ($5.29 M)
Jonas Gustavsson ($1.5 M)
Payroll:
Salary Cap: $64,300,000
Remaining Cap Space: $117,121
As you can see, we have an entire forward line and a defense pairing left over. Those can either be trade pieces, extra depth for injuries, or fillers if anyone on the depth chart above them is traded. Honestly, I would like to see them make a trade. There are some serviceable players left on those extra lines that eat up a decent chunk of salary. If they can swing some of those players as pieces in a trade for either high draft picks, or a top player/prospect, I would be excited. I understand that the players on the extra lines alone probably could not bring in anything with too much value, but they can still be used to sweeten a deal that involves some of our roster players or prospects. The fact of the matter is, we have too many players under contract, and we have a number of young players pushing for NHL duty. There is too much of a logjam at the bottom of our roster for there not to be a trade in my opinion.
Ken Holland has taken a conservative approach in the past, so I’m not expecting a huge splash this summer, but I do expect more than last summer. No matter what happens, we should have the space for at least one relatively big name free agent, and I think with the cap coming down this year we can get them for a good price. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.
Who do you think should be our free agent target? Is there anyone you think will be bought out that we should target?
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