The Great Howard Debate

It would be hard to argue against the fact that on an individual level Jimmy Howard had a successful playoff run this past year. He came up big against the Ducks by being a big part in the game 7 victory, and he helped the Red Wings push the eventual Stanley Cup winners to the brink of elimination. I heard from many people that they were happy Jimmy Howard finally broke through and showed what kind of potential he has.

Rewind about a month from that playoff run. Howard had just signed a 6 year contract worth almost $32 million. That contract was heavily debated, and although there were those who supported the contract, many were against it. In fact, it seemed like the majority were against it. Since that playoff run, most people have now changed their mind and think it was a good deal for the Red Wings.

There are reasons that many people supported the contract before the playoffs, including myself. I’m going to present those reasons here. I’m also going to break down this contract a little further, and I’m going to break down not only just how good Jimmy Howard is, but also how good he has been in comparison to other NHL goalies with familiar names.

Let’s start with the contract. For the past few years, Howard’s cap hit was $2.25 million which is a bargain for a goalie of Howard’s caliber. It was low because when he signed it, he was still young and unproven. His new cap hit will be $5,291,667 for 6 years. Many people did not like this contract, but not for all of the same reasons. There were a number of those who did not like the cap hit, another group that did not like the length, and yet another group that did not like the contract overall because they thought Howard was no good.

For comparison sake, let’s take a look at some other goalie contracts that are either more than, or near Howard in terms of cap hit.

Name – Team – Cap Hit – Age – Contract Start Year-Contract End Year – Total Length of Contract – Years Remaining

1.       Pekka Rinne – Nashville Predators – $7,000,000 – 30 years old – 2012-2019 – 7 years – 6 years

2.       Tuukka Rask – Boston Bruins – $7,000,000 – 26 years old – 2013-2021 – 8 years – 8 years

3.       Henrik Lundqvist – NY Rangers – $6,875,000 – 31 years old – 2008-2014 – 6 years – 1 year

4.       Carey Price – Montreal Canadiens – $6,500,000 – 25 years old – 2012-2018 – 6 years – 5 years

5.       Cam Ward – Carolina Hurricanes – $6,300,000 – 29 years old – 2010-2016 – 6 years – 3 years

6.       Ryan Miller – Buffalo Sabres – $6,250,000 – 33 years old – 2009-2014 – 5 years – 1 year

7.       Kari Lehtonen – Dallas Stars – $5,900,000 – 29 years old – 2013-2018 – 5 years – 5 years

8.       Miikka Kiprusoff – Calgary Flames – $5,833,333 – 36 years old – 2008-2014 – 6 years – 1 year

9.       Jonathan Quick – LA Kings – $5,800,000 – 27 years old – 2013-2023 – 10 years – 10 years

10.   Mike Smith – Phoenix Coyotes – $5,666,667 – 31 years old – 2013-2019 – 6 years – 6 years

11.   Sergei Bobrovsky – Columbus Blue Jackets – $5,625,000 – 24 years old – 2013-2015 – 2 years – 2 years

12.   Roberto Luongo – Vancouver Canucks – $5,333,333 – 34 years old – 2010-2022 – 12 years – 9 years

13.   Jimmy Howard – Detroit Red Wings – $5,291,667 – 29 years old – 2013-2019 – 6 years – 6 years

14.   Marc-Andre Fleury – Pittsburgh Penguins – $5,000,000 – 28 years old – 2008-2015 – 7 years – 2 years

15.   Jonas Hiller – Anaheim Ducks – $4,500,000 – 31 years old – 2010-2014 – 4 years – 1 year

16.   Martin Brodeur – New Jersey Devils - $4,500,000 – 41 years old – 2012-2014 – 2 years – 1 year

Now, I’m going to take that same group of goalies, and break down some statistics, both for this past season and their careers. I’m going to sort the list in terms of save percentage.

2013 Regular Season Stats

Name – Games Played – Save Percentage – Goals Against Average – Wins – Shutouts

1.       Sergei Bobrovsky – 38 Games – .932 – 2.00 – 21 Wins – 4 SO

2.       Tuukka Rask – 36 Games – .929 – 2.00 – 19 Wins – 5 SO

3.       Henrik Lundqvist – 43 Games – .926 – 2.05 – 24 Wins – 2 SO

4.       Jimmy Howard – 42 Games – .923 – 2.13 – 21 Wins – 5 SO

5.       Marc-Andre Fleury – 33 Games – .916 – 2.39 – 23 Wins – 1 SO

6.       Kari Lehtonen – 36 Games – .916 – 2.66 – 15 Wins – 1 SO

7.       Ryan Miller – 40 Games – .915 – 2.81 – 17 Wins – 0 SO

8.       Jonas Hiller – 26 Games – .913 – 2.36 – 15 Wins – 1 SO

9.       Pekka Rinne – 43 Games – .910 – 2.43 – 15 Wins – 5 SO

10.   Mike Smith – 34 Games – .910 – 2.58 – 15 Wins – 5 SO

11.   Cam Ward – 17 Games – .908 – 2.84 – 9 Wins – 0 SO

12.   Roberto Luongo – 20 Games – .907 – 2.56 – 9 Wins – 2 SO

13.   Carey Price – 39 Games – .905 – 2.59 – 21 Wins – 3 SO

14.   Jonathan Quick – 37 Games – .902 – 2.45 – 18 Wins – 1 SO

15.   Martin Brodeur – 29 Games – .901 – 2.22 – 13 Wins – 2 SO

16.   Miikka Kiprusoff – 24 Games – .882 – 3.44 – 8 Wins – 0 SO

Career Stats

Name – Games Played – Save Percentage – Goals Against Average – Wins – Shutouts – Stanley Cups as a Starter

1.       Tuukka Rask – 138 Games – .927 – 2.15 – 66 Wins – 16 SO – 0 Cups

2.       Henrik Lundqvist – 511 Games – .920 – 2.25 – 276 Wins – 45 SO – 0 Cups

3.       Pekka Rinne – 293 Games – .920 – 2.36 – 153 Wins – 30 SO – 0 Cups

4.       Roberto Luongo – 747 Games – .919 – 2.52 – 348 Wins – 62 SO – 0 Cups

5.       Jimmy Howard – 234 Games – .918 – 2.36 – 131 Wins – 16 SO – 0 Cups

6.       Jonas Hiller – 276 Games – .917 – 2.51 – 133 Wins – 16 SO – 0 Cups

7.       Sergei Bobrovsky – 121 Games – .917 – 2.49 – 63 Wins – 4 SO – 0 Cups

8.       Ryan Miller – 500 Games – .915 – 2.59 – 269 Wins – 28 SO – 0 Cups

9.       Carey Price – 310 Games – .915 – 2.56 – 145 Wins – 19 SO – 0 Cups

10.   Jonathan Quick – 286 Games – .915 – 2.32 – 149 Wins – 25 SO – 1 Cup

11.   Kari Lehtonen – 380 Games – .914 – 2.71 – 181 Wins – 22 SO – 0 Cups

12.   Mike Smith – 263 Games – .913 – 2.57 – 120 Wins – 24 SO – 0 Cups

13.   Martin Brodeur – 1,220 Games - .913 – 2.23 – 669 Wins – 121 SO – 3 Cups

14.   Miikka Kiprusoff – 623 Games – .912 – 2.41 – 319 Wins – 44 SO – 0 Cups

15.   Cam Ward – 431 Games – .910 – 2.74 – 214 Wins – 21 SO – 1 Cup

16.   Marc-Andre Fleury – 467 Games – .910 – 2.66 – 249 Wins – 23 SO – 1 Cup

I think the stats speak for themselves. Howard is a top goalie in this league, and his contract is the 13^th highest. There are some goalies who are still young who are not on this list however. Corey Crawford won the Cup with the Blackhawks this past season, and Antti Niemi also won a Cup with the Blackhawks a few years ago. However, they are still young so they have not gotten their big contract yet. I can assure you that within the next few years, their names will be on this list too barring any sort of significant injury.

Howard also has some good career playoff stats. Of the goalies on the list, Howard is 8^th in save percentage at .918, and he is 12^th on the list in terms of goals against average at 2.57. Although that is not as stellar as his regular season stats, he is still playing above his contract ranking. Not to mention this past post season he played above his career statistics with a .924 save percentage and a 2.44 goals against average.

Howard might be one of the most underrated goalies in the league, and the thing about him that encourages me the most is his consistency. He plays a lot of games every year, and he has played well for multiple years now. He is not a flash in the pan type goalie like we saw out of Brian Elliot on the Blues a year ago, and what we saw out of Craig Anderson in Ottawa this year. I suppose Anderson has the chance to prove me wrong, but after being mediocre for so long, and then posting such great numbers this year, I have a lot of doubt that he can keep up that outstanding play.

For those of you worried that Howard is not a Stanley Cup caliber goalie, there is no need to worry. Howard is good enough to win the Stanley Cup. If you don’t believe me, look at the list of goalies above and the number of Stanley Cups they have won. There are some goalies that are considered elite that have never won a Cup. Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price, and Pekka Rinne are just a few. No one questions whether those goalies are capable of winning a Cup. Howard has proven that he can perform in the playoffs (especially if you ignore the one bad series he had against Nashville in 2012) so I believe he is good enough. Now the question of whether or not he will win a Cup is another question. I am hopeful with the team the Red Wings will have playing in front of him, even as soon as next year.

Howard deserving of the contract he got based on his performance alone, but there is one more reason I am really happy about it. If we did not sign Howard to that kind of money, he would’ve signed with another team for the same price, if not more. Who would the Red Wings get to be their goalie? Starting goalies are not readily available, especially one as good as Howard has been. Now, the team has its rock in goal, and it is not an area the team will need to worry about for a while.

I did mention in my earlier posts that the Red Wings have a stud goalie prospect in Petr Mrazek, and I have not forgotten about him. He is probably 1 or 2 years away from being ready to play in the NHL. He is still very young though, so if he does make it to the NHL he can get his playing time as a backup to Howard while Howard is 2 or 3 years into this new contract. Because Howard plays so frequently, having a goalie like Mrazek  who is capable will be a very welcome addition to the team as some relief for Howard. If it is apparent at that time that Mrazek is better than a backup goalie, the Red Wings will have options. They can trade Mrazek, or they can even trade Howard. Either way, that is a good problem to have if it happens. People who think this contract is a road block to any young goalie in the Red Wings organization just need to realize that a team only needs one starting goalie. If Howard is good throughout the length of the contract which is very possible, then it will be a good deal.

What do you think of Howard’s contract? Did you like it initially? Have you changed your mind about it since the playoffs?