Red Wings Free Agent Frenzy

The NHL free agency period started on July 5^th this year, and the Red Wings did not waste any time in making their moves. Within minutes of the clock striking 12, news swirled in the hockey world that the Red Wings had acquired Daniel Alfredsson, the long-time captain of the Ottawa Senators. Not more than an hour later, more rumors started spreading about Stephen Weiss from the Florida Panthers possibly becoming a Red Wing. Within a half hour, that was a done deal.

So far, those are the two big additions the Red Wings have made during free agency. They are likely not finished either. There is a lot of talk about Dan Cleary re-signing here, and Damien Brunner is another one of our players who may be back. There are also three restricted free agents who will likely be back in Gustav Nyquist, Brendan Smith, and Joakim Andersson.  

Since the Red Wings made these moves to bring in these players, I have heard both praises and criticisms of the moves they made. A lot of people are upset that Damien Brunner has not been resigned yet. Other people do not want Cleary back and are frustrated with the fact that talks continue with him about a new contract. More people are saying that Alfredsson is too old and has nothing left in the tank at 40 years of age. However, I have heard people say that they like the Alfredsson signing as well. And I have not heard a negative to the Stephen Weiss signing yet except for the fact that not everyone is wowed by it.

Here’s what I think about the moves we have made so far, and I’ll start with the Weiss signing. He is signed for 5 years with a cap hit of $4.9 million. Weiss to me is a very good addition, and because he is a center he fills a hole on our team. Weiss consistently can score at least 20 goals, and add even more assists. He will  be an upgrade over Valtteri Filppula who signed a 5 year deal with Tampa Bay for $5 million per season. Weiss plays a lot like Filppula in the sense that he is a good skater who is responsible in the defensive zone, but Weiss brings more to the table with his point production and his leadership ability. He was an assistant captain in Florida, and he was relied on heavily there because he was one of their top two or three players. The only worry I have right now is that Weiss was injured for a lot of last season and never really got going in terms of production. However, I’m hopeful because he will now be playing on a team where he is surrounded with more talent than he had in Florida, and he will not be matched up against the other teams’ top defensive units. On a side note, he played his junior hockey for the Plymouth Whalers, so he already has some familiarity with the area. This signing is a good fit that will help this team offensively.

Analyzing the Weiss signing was easy, because there are not too many people who have a problem with that pick. However, the Daniel Alfredsson signing has come under much more scrutiny. And to those people who do not like the signing, let me see if I can change your mind. As you might be able to tell by now, this is another addition I really like. Alfredsson is a veteran right winger who has been the captain in Ottawa for the past 14 years. Right away, it is obvious that with this signing comes a player who knows how to play the game, and can lead others well. The contract he signed is a one year deal with a cap hit of $3.5 million. There are performance bonuses within the contract worth $2 million as well. So the cap hit is relatively low and it is a one year deal, a very low risk signing. Last season, Alfredsson scored 10 goals and had 16 assists for 26 points during the regular season. During the playoffs last year, he had 4 goals and 6 assists for 10 points in 10 games. His regular season totals would put him tied for 5^th on the Red Wings in both goal scoring and point production last season, and his production in the playoffs would have him tied for 2^nd on the team in both playoff goal scoring and point production even though Alfredsson played in 4 less playoff games than Red Wings players. The season before last, he put up 27 goals and 32 assists.

Alfredsson has been one of the better goal scorers in the league throughout his 18 year career, and he can still get the job done. Let’s face it, almost everyone wanted Nicklas Lidstrom back when he was going to be 43 years old, and although Alfredsson is not Lidstrom, he’s not your average 40 year old player either. With this signing, the Red Wings gain an excellent character player who has played in the Eastern Conference his entire career, and can still get the job done offensively. With the Red Wings moving to the Eastern Conference next year, Alfredsson (and Weiss) will be valuable when it comes to knowledge of the teams the Red Wings will now be playing against frequently. The other thing I really like about this signing is that it is a one year deal. It will be a good way to fill a hole until our prospects like Calle Jarnkrok, Tomas Jurco, Landon Ferraro, Teemu Pulkkinen, and Riley Sheahan are ready in the 2014-2015 season and one of them will likely fill that spot in the lineup. Then again, if Alfredsson does well we can sign him to another one year deal next summer and find other places for the prospects to fit into the lineup. He has stated publicly that wanting to win a Stanley Cup influenced his decision to leave Ottawa, and it should mean a lot that he chose the Red Wings to try and achieve this goal.

As far as our losses, Filppula can go to Tampa for $5 million, and I do not care at all. The Red Wings got a better player with a lower cap hit in Weiss, and I don’t think Filppula is worth more than $4 million per year.

This whole situation about Cleary and Brunner is strange though. Nearly every fan wants Brunner back while they want Cleary gone. However, management seems to be talking to Cleary much more than Brunner. Reports say that Brunner wants about $3-$3.5 million per year for a few years and Cleary wants $2.5-$3 million for 3 years. Those numbers are very similar, and it doesn’t make sense why a declining player in Cleary would be favored over a player in his prime who can score like Brunner. It leads me to believe there may be some friction between the team and Brunner. He was never known as a two way player, and maybe he refused to work on getting better defensively? Maybe Brunner did not like the way he was being coached here? Maybe there’s just simply no room for his type of player in this lineup anymore? I’m just speculating, but obviously there are things between Brunner and the team we don’t know for sure.

Even if Brunner is not back, I would still rather not have Cleary back. Especially for another 3 years  at such a large cap hit for the production he brings. Not to mention Cleary’s injury potential is too high for such a long commitment. If we really need another forward, (and I’m not convinced we do) I would look to pick up Brendan Morrow. Morrow is similar to Cleary, but Morrow has more leadership and offensive production since Morrow was the captain of the Dallas Stars for years. Cleary’s career high in points is 46 points, whereas Morrow has had 46 points or more 5 times in his career. Morrow is one month younger than Cleary too, so it’s not like one has more youth than the other realistically. Although Morrow has had his injury struggles too, he would be a better risk because he’s a better player.

So here are the important changes that have been made so far this offseason:

Additions:

Daniel Alfredsson (Free Agency)

Stephen Weiss (Free Agency)

Tomas Tatar (Prospect)

Subtractions:

Valtteri Filppula (Free Agency)

Carlo Colaiacovo (Bought Out)

Still Waiting:
Dan Cleary

Damien Brunner (Likely gone)

Gustav Nyquist (Restricted Free Agent)

Brendan Smith (Restricted Free Agent)

Joakim Andersson (Restricted Free Agent)

Restricted free agents (RFA) are younger players whose rights are still owned by their team even though they’re free agents. Any team can offer them a contract, but the team that owns their rights has a chance to match what other teams offer them. As a result, it’s very rare to see a restricted free agent move to another team.

So looking at the moves we made, Weiss is an upgrade over Filppula, Tatar is a player who was the MVP of the AHL playoffs this past year, and has a good chance to make up for the production we might lose if Brunner doesn’t resign. Alfredsson is a pure addition unless we lose Cleary, and he will likely produce more offense than Cleary. With Nyquist likely being back and playing a full season, he has a chance to put up at least 40 points this year. We may have lost Colaiacovo, but he was an extra piece who didn’t play much. He doesn’t need to be replaced. Looking at our moves as a whole, it is hard to say anything but this team has significantly improved from last season.

Expect more to happen before the season starts as well. Teams need to fill out a 23 person roster, and right now the Red Wings have 22. If they are entertaining bringing back Cleary, Nyquist, Andersson, and Smith, that would put them at 26 players. Also, that would put them over the salary cap. Money needs to be moved and players need to be moved. Look for a trade to be made that might include players like Cory Emmerton, Patrick Eaves, Jordin Tootoo, and maybe even Kyle Quincey or Mikael Samuelsson. Do not expect big time players in return either because we will need to cut salary. I’m expecting trades for draft picks, prospects, and maybe a decent defenseman if Quincey is included.

I’m going to assume for a moment that Smith, Nyquist, and Andersson are all back since they are RFAs. With the additions the Red Wings made,  there are some very interesting line combinations that can be made. The defense will likely look similar to last year, but the forward depth is much better. Here are a few line combinations that I think look pretty good.

Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Abdelkader

Franzen – Zetterberg – Nyquist

Tatar – Weiss – Samuelsson

Miller – Helm – Andersson

Or

Franzen – Datsyuk – Samuelsson

Alfredsson – Weiss – Zetterberg

Tatar – Helm – Nyquist

Miller – Andersson – Abdelkader

Or even

Zetterberg – Datsyuk – Abdelkader

Alfredsson – Weiss – Franzen

Tatar – Andersson – Nyquist

Miller – Helm – Samuelsson

The extras are Eaves, Emmerton, Bertuzzi, and Tootoo, and they can be slotted into the lineup if necessary, but I’m also not expecting all these players to be here. If Bertuzzi is healthy, he will be in the lineup, but I left him out because he has been injured a lot lately. Also, I’m hopeful we will see Helm back next year so I did include him in those lineups. If he is still hurt though, Emmerton can slide in and play center.

It is pretty fun to mix up these lines, and I’m sure Mike Babcock is thinking the same thing right now. By the looks of it, we will have 3 lines who can legitimately score some goals and a 4^th line that will wear the other team down, and play responsibly defensively.

The defense should look something like this unless a trade to acquire another quality defenseman arises.

Kronwall – Ericsson

Kindl – DeKeyser

Quincey – Smith

Extra: Lashoff

I personally think that is a strong lineup on defense. Although there are some young players there, I would have to believe that 5 if not all 6 would be top 4 defenseman on most teams. Smith is still developing, and I look for him to surprise some people this year with an improvement. Also, do not forget that Quincey has the ability to put up some points, and he played very well defensively last year in the playoffs.

Right now, Ken Holland has options. His money is much tighter than at the beginning of free agency, but moves will have to be made. There’s no guarantee anything will happen very soon, but it has to before the season starts. Overall, I give the Red Wings an A- so far during free agency. I really like the pickups of Alfredsson and Weiss, but I would’ve liked to see Brunner back and I do not want them to sign Cleary to a contract anywhere near what he is asking. Those small flaws are why the minus was included.  Even though there are some flaws, the pickups are excellent for the team now, and looking toward the team’s future.

What would you like to see the Red Wings do during the rest of the summer via free agency, trades, or buyouts?  What would your ideal line combination look like? What grade would you give the Red Wings offseason at this point?

Detroit Red Wings Draft Recap

The draft has come and passed, and the Red Wings made some interesting moves throughout the day. One of these moves was a trade which sent the 18^th overall pick to San Jose for the 20^th pick and the 58^th pick. I think it was a great move because the team only moved down two draft positions, while picking up a 2^nd round pick in the process. Then, they picked the player at 20^th overall that they would’ve picked at 18^th overall.

Despite the nice trade the Red Wings made, the whole day during the draft one work kept coming to my mind: underwhelming. Then I let it sit for a while, and realized that this draft was better than I initially thought. Here is a list of who we picked, and a little bit about each one.

1^st round (20^th overall) Anthony Mantha 6’4” 190 lbs LW – Big winger who can score. He is the only draft eligible player in the Canadian Junior leagues that scored 50 goals this past season. He can control the puck well, is a good skater, has a great shot, and works well down low. There are some knocks on him though. Even though he is 6’4”, he doesn’t use his size to his advantage enough. He doesn’t play physical or go into the corners hard. He also struggled with some inconsistencies in production. Overall, he sounds exactly like a Johan Franzen 2.0 at this point. He has more potential than Franzen though, so as it is with 99% of all hockey prospects fresh out of the draft a wait and see approach is what we need to take here. If he lives up to his potential, he could be a dominant top line player for the Red Wings within 5-6 years.  

My reaction: I didn’t like it at first, but I’m coming around to the idea of having Mantha here. I really wanted them to take Hunter Shinkaruk, but then again the Red Wings already have a glut of undersized offensively talented prospects. The thought of Mantha being inconsistent on a night in night out basis was a little scary. Also, for a big guy his lack of physicality scared me. However, if he lives up to what he can be I’ll be extremely happy. This is very much a boom or bust type of pick.

2^nd round (48^th overall) Zach Nastasuik 6’1” 190 lbs C/RW – A relatively big bodied forward who is a gritty hard working type of player. He does flash some offensive upside, but he is known as a very solid two-way player. He hits, makes smart passes, scores, plays defense, and really anything else asked of him. He does it all. If his offensive touch develops (and it came along very well last year), he could turn into a Tomas Holmstrom or even a Milan Lucic type. Not the best skater, but not a poor skater either. He projects as a 3^rd line forward with a decent chance to realize his offensive upside to maybe fill a 2^nd line role.

My reaction: I liked this pick. Nastasuik is the type of player this team lost in Holmstrom and we need a guy like that. He doesn’t have the same net front presence skills that Holmstrom had as far as tipping in shots, but few do. He does, however, have a knack for finding loose pucks in front of the net, and being able to finish them off.  The bottom line is, Nastasuik is a hardworking, do it all type of player who may have the scoring ability to fill a 2^ndline role. Players like that are a valuable commodity in the league, and the Red Wings are lacking this type of player both on their team now and in their prospect pool.

2^nd round (58^th overall) Tyler Bertuzzi 6’0” 178 lbs LW – The scrappy nephew of current Red Wing Todd Bertuzzi went higher in this draft than most expected. Tyler is a pest to play against, and can chip in with a goal from time to time, not unlike Andrew Shaw from the Blackhawks. Never going to be known as a scorer, Tyler projects be a 4^th line player who is willing to drop the gloves, and get in the face of the opponents.

My reaction: I can sum up my initial reaction with one word: “why?” Betuzzi was ranked far lower in the draft that this. In fact, he was projected to go in the 5^th round at the earliest. It was hard for me to accept this pick when there were so many other good players left on the board. However, if I ignore the draft position, I actually like the pick. He is a fighting, agitating winger who can skate pretty well. He’s the type of player who is great to have during the playoffs because he drives other teams crazy. I like the player, but I don’t like the resource we used to acquire him.

3^rd round (79^th overall) Mattias Janmark-Nylen 6’1” 189 lbs C/LW – This 21 year old Swede was passed over in the draft before, but this time around he caught the eye of the Red Wings. He is a bit of a late bloomer, and really came into his own offensively this past season. Not the best skater, but he gets by with his very good hockey IQ, and overall skill level. If his skating improves and he reaches his potential offensively, he could be as high as a 2^nd liner in the NHL.

My reaction: This was an interesting pick because he had been passed over in the draft before. According to Red Wings scouts, the Red Wings were interested in Janmark-Nylen in past years, but just decided to take other players. This year, he took hockey more seriously and took a huge developmental leap. I am intrigued by this pick because he does have the potential to be a good player with a scoring touch. Some teams may have passed him up too since he is older already. However, we will see sooner rather than later whether this was a good pick because he is already 21, and is closer to the NHL because of his age.

4^th round (109^th overall) David Pope 6’2” 187 lbs LW – This is a long term prospect who does not need to sign with the Red Wings until 2018. This is because he is playing in a Canadian junior league, and is expected to play in the NCAA with Nebraska-Omaha starting in 2014-2015. Pope is an offensive talent. He has an excellent shot, is a decent skater, and plays with a high compete level. He hasn’t yet put up the offensive numbers that someone with his offensive capabilities would be expected to, but he has a lot of time to put things together. He has the upside of a 2^nd line forward, but if the scoring never comes he could still be an effective 3^rd liner.

My reaction: This is a very solid pick in my opinion. Pope has potential to be an impact player at the NHL level, but then again, there are no guarantees of this. Of course, if there were any guarantees he would make an impact he would’ve been picked in a much higher round. Anytime you can add a potential scoring line winger after the second round, especially one that has some size, I like taking the risk even if he never pans out.

5^th round (139^th overall) Mitchell Wheaton 6’4” 230 lbs D – With the Red Wings’ 6^th selection they chose a massive defenseman. Wheaton fell to the 5^th round because he was injured for a large part of the season, so he had limited exposure to NHL scouts. He uses his size to play a physical game, but has never really been a person known as an exceptional physical force. He is just a solid defensive defenseman who has the potential to be a bottom pairing shutdown type of guy.

My reaction: I like the size, but this pick doesn’t wow me. I guess it’s hard to be wowed in the later rounds. If Wheaton makes the NHL, he will be one of those boring players who doesn’t get noticed a whole lot, but gets the job done. I think of him as a poor man’s Jonathan Ericsson. A solid pick at this point in the draft to bolster our defensive depth, but nothing that really excites me.

6^th round (169^th overall) Marc McNulty 6’6” 185 lbs D – A fairly mobile defenseman for his size, McNulty has a lot of work to do before playing in the NHL. He is inconsistent, and relies on his excellent reach to stop plays. He does boast some offensive upside, but is not very physical. If the pieces come together, he could be a solid two way defender in the NHL. He definitely has NHL height, but needs to add weight to his huge frame. He has some tools, but just needs to continue to develop. Down the road, he projects to be a bottom pairing mobile two way defenseman.

My reaction: This pick excites me a little more than the Wheaton pick because McNulty has a higher upside than Wheaton in my opinion. Now, I think it is more likely that Wheaton will fill his potential, but if McNulty’s development goes perfectly, he will be a good defenseman in the future. It’s another pick that bolsters the defensive depth, but I like this one because there is a little more risk taken then the Wheaton pick. Overall, I like the fact that the Red Wings took one safe pick, and one risk pick with the defenseman this year.

7^th round (199^th overall) Hampus Melen 6’2” 165 lbs RW – With the Red Wings’ final pick in this year’s draft, they took a chance on the little known Hampus Melen from Sweden. Melen is a player who grew substantially over the past few years both physically, and in terms of offensive production. He was the best player playing in a lower tier league that is scouted very minimally, and this is the type of player that could prove to be one of those hidden gems the Red Wings have a knack of finding. Melen is a very hard worker who needs to keep getting bigger and stronger. If he does, he could become a scoring threat at the NHL level with a good shot and a good compete level.

My reaction: I really like this pick. In the 7^th round, the odds of getting a player that will actually contribute at the NHL level are extremely slim, but it can happen (see Henrik Zetterberg). This is what is known as a classic Hakan Andersson pick. For those of you who don’t know, Hakan Andersson is a Red Wings scout  who is generally known as one of the best at scouting draft-eligible European talent throughout the entire league. He is the guy responsible for drafting guys like Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall, Jiri Hudler, Jonathan Ericsson, and Valtteri Filppula among others. Andersson will often be turned to in the late rounds of the draft to make a sleeper pick for the Red Wings. Zetterberg (7^th round) and Datsyuk (6^th round) are the prime examples of this. Will Melen live up to any of the names on that list? Only time will tell. Not all of Andersson’s picks are successful. It’s understood that a 7^th round pick is a longshot, but there’s nothing wrong with taking a low risk high reward pick in the 7^th round as Andersson so commonly does.  

There were a few things about this draft I noticed. First off, they wanted forwards. They didn’t select a defenseman before they had already picked five forwards. This makes sense because we have a lot of very good defense prospects, but we need some more top end forwards prospects with size. That brings me to my next point; every pick was at least six feet tall this year. The Red Wings had a few big forwards in the prospect pool, but that was probably the type of player they are most lacking. Also, Mantha is unique in our system. No other player we have is well over 6 feet with the pure goal scoring ability he has. Tomas Jurco is 6’2” with a lot of skill and point producing ability, but he doesn’t project to be a raw goal scorer like Mantha does. Martin Frk at exactly six feet tall is probably the closest we have to Mantha in our prospect system. Frk has an excellent shot and loves to score goals. However, he is not as good of a skater as Mantha, and isn’t as big.

If I were to grade the draft I would give it a  B. My initial reaction on Sunday was a C, but that’s probably because the Red Wings drafted a lot of players I knew nothing about while there were good players I had heard a lot about still left on the board. I think I will trust the scouts opinions over my judgment that stems reading mock drafts and prospect reports though. The one question mark I still have is why we took Bertuzzi so high in the draft. He was projected to go in the 5^th round, and I thought there were a lot of other good players available when we picked him in the 2^nd round. However, if I don’t look at the draft positions, and I just look at the players, it looks like a solid group overall.

Next week, I plan to discuss free agency because it starts this Friday (7/5). What players would you like to see the Red Wings target?

Detroit Red Wings Draft Preview

Ahhh, the NHL Draft. Is there a more exciting time in sports for a team that didn’t win the championship? Well maybe there is, but the draft is high on my list. Over the course of the next few days we get to see young players across the world start their NHL journey. Sure, many won’t ever end up playing in the NHL, but at the same time we see which teams draft tomorrow’s superstars. We also get to see a glimpse of what the future of the Red Wings might look like.

This year, the Red Wings will be drafting 18^th overall in the 1^st round. This is the highest draft position they have had since 1991 when they drafted Martin Lapointe 10^th overall. It’s probably worth mentioning that they did have the 19^th pick in 2005 which they used to draft Jakub Kindl too. Regardless, it’s easy to say this draft could be very exciting. To add to the excitement, it has been said by many scouts that this draft is very deep with talent. In other words, players who may have been top 10 picks in other years can be picked up throughout the top 20-25 picks this year because there are that many good players. The Red Wings have a chance to land a heck of a talent this year. There has to be something good that comes from losing to the Blackhawks right? Had we won that game 7, we would be drafting no earlier than 27^th overall. By losing, we gained at least 9 spots in the draft. I’m not saying I’m glad we lost, but I do like to find positives in in negatives, and the higher draft position is definitely a good thing.

I’m not going to lie, I’m the person who loves looking at mock drafts. I’ve been looking at them since before the season started. The problem is, they change so much, and they are so inconsistent that there is no way to believe any of them are accurate beyond the first few picks (even those are shaky). However, there are some general consistencies, and it’s from those that I present to you some options of who I would like to see the Red Wings draft.

1^st round options:

Valentin Zykov 6’ 210 lbs – Goal scoring left winger with some good size. He uses his size well too and plays a power forward style game. He Is very good down low, and is a good passer.

Alexander Wennberg 6’ 1.5” 186 lbs – Above average skater with excellent vision who plays well in all three zones. Already polished with a developing finishing ability. He can play all three forward spots with equal ability. Outstanding hockey sense, and a hard worker who likes to control the puck.

Max Domi 5’ 9” 175 lbs – Small, but tenacious center who is a pure offensive weapon. Son of former NHLer Tie Domi, Max has a lot more speed and skill, yet he still plays a physical style. A leader with an edge, if Max falls to us, he will be a good pick despite his size.

Andre Burakowsky 6’ 1” 177 lbs – Speedy left winger who needs to add weight, but can score goals. Will go to the dirty areas to get the puck, but needs to work on trusting others and passing a bit more. He also has outstanding stickhandling abilities, and can beat defenders 1 on 1.

Hunter Shinkaruk 5’ 10” 178 lbs – Hunter is a bit of a longshot to fall this far, but if he does it would be very hard not to take him. He’s got it all except size. He has a 6^th sense in the offensive zone and knows where to go to score goals and who to pass to in order to set up goals. He is quick, and he plays the role of an agitator despite not being overly physical. If not for his small size, would be a top 5 pick.

There are more options in the first round that would be good (remember I said this was a deep draft?), but I listed my favorites.

Post 1^st round:

Pavel Buchnevich 6’ 1” 170 lbs – Probably first round talent, but this winger could drop to the second round due to the Russian Factor. For those of you who don’t know what the Russian Factor is, it’s the possibility that the player never plays in the NHL because they decide to stay in Russia and play in their league, the KHL. They can often get more money there, and it is almost as competitive as the NHL. Buchnevich is a goal scorer who is quick, creative with the puck, and has an excellent release on his shot.

Artturi Lehkonen 5’ 10” 163 lbs – Another smaller winger who can score, and put up points. Great skater, passer and finisher.

Hunter Fasching 6’ 3” 204 lbs – A less polished right wing prospect who has a lot of tools including size, a good shot, and excellent hockey IQ.

Anton Slepyshev 6’ 160 lbs – A second year eligible left winger who went undrafted last year again due to the Russian Factor. He is too good to ignore though, and it’s worth a shot if he is there in the 3^rd round or later. He doesn’t excel at any one part of the game, but instead is good at everything including the powerplay and penalty kill.

Bogdan Yakimov 6’ 4” 200 lbs – Big center who has a great shot. He can also play in front of the net in the offensive zone. Another longer term prospect, he has the tools to be a good player down the road, but needs to improve his puck handling while skating.

Markus Söberg 6’ 165 lbs – Fast, fast, fast. He can flat out skate. He is starting to put up some better offensive numbers, and he could be a bit of a sleeper pick.

Teemu Kivihalme 6’ 165 lbs – I thought I would put a pair of defensemen on this list, and I’ll start with Teemu. He is a long term prospect which is ideal for the Red Wings because they have a lot of defenseman who are 1-2 years away from being ready for NHL duty. He is very mobile in all four directions with a good shot, and has a tendency to play with aggression. Physical despite his size, if he fills out a bit more, he could become quite a player down the road.

Conner Clifton 6’ 167 lbs – A proven winner, this defenseman is a small yet very physical presence on the ice. Loves to throw big hits, and he can skate very well. Still needs to bulk up a bit, but if he does, he could become the type of defenseman the NHL teams love.

Marcus Högberg 6’ 4” 196 lbs – I decided to put a later round goalie on this list too. He’s big, and does well under pressure. He takes away the lower half of the net well, and his size helps him take away the top of the net while he is covering the lower half.

Remember, there is no way the Red Wings will be able to draft all these players, because many of them are expected to be picked at similar times in the draft. As you can see by my picks, I want this team to focus on offense during this draft. I wouldn’t mind defenseman or a goalie, but I wouldn’t look in that direction until the 3^rd round. The only exception is if a defenseman that is rated way higher somehow falls to them. It’s possible, but I don’t see that happening.

Ken Holland has always stated in the past that the draft is like a crapshoot. You get roughly seven chances each year to find players that will contribute to your team in the future. If two of those players end up playing in the NHL, it was a successful draft. The best player available strategy is certainly one the Red Wings have embraced, and it has worked. That is perhaps the biggest difference between the NHL draft and the more highly publicized NFL and NBA drafts. Most of the players taken in the NHL draft are not expected to step in and contribute right away.

I look at things in a similar way to taking the absolute best player available, but my view is slightly different. Also, based on what Ken Holland has done in the draft over the past few years, he sees things similarly to me. I look at the system of prospects as a whole, and see what we need to fill there. Then I look at the Red Wings, and see what prospects will need to be graduating within the next year. Then, I would draft where we have and are going to have holes in our prospect pool. I would never try and draft for need based on what is currently happening in the NHL. Obviously by looking at the Red Wings right now you can say we have Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, while there are guys like Gustav Nyqust and Tomas Tatar just getting their start on the team, so why do we need offense in the draft? Well looking at our pool of prospects, although we have a lot of good forward prospects not yet in the NHL, I’m not convinced that any of them will step up to be perennial all-stars like Datsyuk and Zetterberg. On the other hand, we do have a lot of defense prospects. In fact, I believe that we have too many NHL caliber defensemen based on the number of prospects we have, and how many spots there are on our roster. As far as goalies go, we have Howard locked down in the NHL, a solid prospect playing in the junior leagues, and a potential stud playing in the AHL. I suppose we could add one more goalie to the pool, but it’s not top priority in my opinion.

I don’t want to overanalyze who the Red Wings are going to pick the draft. Holland really is correct when he says it’s like a crapshoot. What teams are going to do is completely unexpected, and there could be a player available that we never dreamed of getting. It happens in every draft in every league. Luckily for the Red Wings, because they have done such a good job drafting over the past few years, they can afford to gamble on this pick a little bit. They can take a player with boom or bust potential, and not be set back too much if it is a bust. The guy I mentioned earlier that is probably the biggest boom or bust type player is Andre Burakowsky.

Another possibility I could see playing out is the Red Wings trading their 1^st round pick this year to trade down in the draft. If the Red Wings see about 5 players their scouts have rated equally when it’s their turn to pick, they might just trade down and get an extra draft pick from another team in the process. With this being a deep draft, there could be some very quality talent later in the 1^st round or even the early second round. Personally, I think with this draft the Red Wings should go for quality over quantity since they have traded away so many of their first round picks the past few years.

One thing I heard rumblings about, but do not see happening is the Red Wings making a trade to move up in the draft. That completely goes against Holland’s philosophy, and it will likely be expensive. As excited as I would be about a move like that, it would have to be a perfect scenario. I won’t completely rule it out though because we do have some pieces we can trade including some young promising defenseman in Brendan Smith and Jakub Kindl, a more veteran defenseman in Carlo Colaiacovo, some forward prospects in Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar, a gritty veteran forward in Jordan Tootoo, and the rights to Valtteri Filppula. It really would come down to how high they would be trading up, and who is available at the pick they would be trading to. Like I said, although it’s a possibility, I still don’t see it happening. Realistically, I predict the Red Wings will keep their pick and draft at number 18 overall because it is a high pick for them. It just so happens that my prediction falls in line with what I want them to do.

All seven rounds of the draft are taking place this Sunday. Next week I plan to recap the Red Wings draft picks, and let you know what I think of them. One thing I’m sure of now is that I’m excited to see what happens.

What would you like to see the Red Wings do with this draft pick? Is there a certain player or position they should target? Should they trade the pick? Should they stay at 18^th overall? Why?

Buyouts/Free Agency

Before I get into what I planned to talk about this week, I just wanted to take this opportunity to congratulate the Grand Rapids Griffins on winning the 2013 Calder Cup! That is a huge accomplishment, and it is a testament to how well this Red Wings organization has developed prospects over the past few years. Also, congratulations to Tomas Tatar on being the MVP of the AHL playoffs. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can contribute to the Red Wings next year.

Anyway, back to what I was planning on discussing for this week’s post. During this summer, teams will have the ability to buy out players using the NHL’s amnesty clause. There seems to be a lot of people who are confused about what the amnesty clause is and how it works, so here’s an explanation of it in my own words to try and make it as simple as possible for you.

First, here is some background information on why the amnesty clause exists. The lockout this season was due to the players association and owners debating how money will be divided between them. With that, there were a lot of changes made to the league so it functions better overall. This includes a new set of parameters for player contracts and a new lower salary cap. Lowering the salary cap would be unfair to teams who made expensive deals with players in the past expecting that the salary cap would be close to what is was this past season ($70,200,000). The new salary cap will be $64,300,000, so it will decrease by nearly $6,000,000. Because of this, the league has allowed each team to have two amnesty buyouts. These buyouts will not count against the salary cap, and they can take place either this summer or next summer. After that, there are no more amnesty buyouts. If a player is bought out, they cannot resign with the team that bought them out for a year.

Simply put, you can get rid of two players over the next two summers for free as far as the salary cap is concerned. The question now is, who do we get rid of? In my opinion, we should use no more than one buyout this summer. I’ve heard a lot of talk about buying out Johan Franzen, and I understand why people would be in favor of this. He is wildly inconsistent, he is the 3^rd highest paid forward on the team at a cap hit of $3,954,545, and he is signed until the year 2020. Some people say that his decline has begun, and that contract will be terrible in the future. I can agree with every one of those points, but I also think it would be stupid to buy him out… this summer.

Franzen is still playing well, and was on pace for 28 goals in this past shortened season. There’s no reason to go into next season without him. We need to watch him next season, and reevaluate him at that point. That is the time to buy him out if he is still underperforming. If he plays well though, I think we should keep him beyond that. However, that’s why I think it would be smart to only buy out one player this summer, so we have options next summer.

So, who do we buy out if we are only going to use one? My pick is Mikael Samuelsson. Sure, he is only signed through next year, but he is making $3,000,000. That’s too much for what he can bring to the table, and I think that money can be used elsewhere.

Todd Bertuzzi might retire, so there would be no need to buy him out. Plus, if he doesn’t, I think he brings more to the table than Samuelsson because of his leadership, grit, and shootout ability. His cap hit is also lower than Samuelsson at $2,075,000 through next year.

Carlo Colaiacovo is a strong buyout candidate. The only reason I choose Samuelsson over Colaiacovo is because Colaiacovo has a lower cap hit, $2,500,000 through next year. Maybe he can be included in some sort of trade instead.

Jordin Tootoo gives the team some sandpaper which is something we don’t have a lot of. His cap hit is lower too at $1,900,000 for the next two years.

All the other players who are not free agents I think are the best options this team has, and are worth the money. This includes Kyle Quincey and Jonathan Ericsson.

This leaves the free agent market, and trades. We have a lot of defenseman, and a fairly deep prospect pool at the forward position, so I could definitely see some pieces traded away for a proven goal scorer this summer. Time will tell with trades, because they can be very unpredictable. With the amnesty clause this summer even more so.

The Red Wings also have a number of players that will be free agents this summer. Some notables include Valtteri Filppula, Dan Cleary, Gustav Nyquist, Jakub Kindl, Brendan Smith, Damien Brunner, and Joakim Andersson.

Filppula will likely be asking for too much, so we can let him walk. Not to mention he had a poor year this past year, and we have younger players ready to step up and play his role.

I will miss Cleary, but it’s not worth it to sign him. There are too many up and coming good players that his leadership and grit isn’t worth the money and roster spot. However, I would not be surprised to see Ken Holland bring him back for a short term deal that is inexpensive. I suppose if they can keep him for under $1.5 M then it would be okay, but it’s not my first choice.

Everyone else I want to keep. Nyquist and Kindl played very well this past season, and I believe they will be very good for us for years. Brunner was among the top goal scorers on the team this year, and we need goal scoring. Smith has potential to be a very good defenseman in the future, but he still has some growing to do. Andersson is a good bottom line center who has size and very good defensive awareness.

Some free agents outside of the Red Wings organization I have heard people talking about targeting are Bryan Bickell, Nathan Horton, Mark Streit (he has since signed with Philadelphia), and Viktor Stalberg among others. I’ll just say right now that I don’t want us to target a defenseman. We have too many as is, so I am not sad that we didn’t get Streit. The only way I will change my opinion and think that we need a defenseman is if a trade is made that leaves a hole. Then all bets are off.

Although I would be okay with Bickell, Horton, and Stalberg, they are not ideal, and definitely not my top free agent targets. I think of them more as last resort type signings. Horton would be the closest to ideal of the bunch, and of the three I would have the least problem with us signing him. The problem with him is that he has had concussion issues. He has missed a lot of time with injuries, and I don’t know if it’s the best idea to sign a player like that. Stalberg is basically another Filppula as far as point production, and I have heard that he isn’t a great locker room guy. He has disputed his playing time with coaches in the past, and that sounds selfish to me. Bickell is a bit of a hothead in my opinion. Plus, Bickell is not a goal scorer and he will probably command too much money for what he is. I think it would be redundant to have Bickell and Abdelkader on the same team.

I believe there will be a lot of players available this summer due to teams buying out their bad contracts. There is no telling exactly who will be bought out, but one possibility is Dany Heatley.

Heatley is a sniper with size, and he is a former 50 goal scorer in this league. However, his point production tapered off the past few years while playing in San Jose and Minnesota. He has a cap hit of $7,500,000 through next year. He is underperforming based on his contract, and he is only 32 years old. If he is bought out, I would love to see the Wings make a run at him. Playing with the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg could really help him out. Also, Heatley will come at a bit of a discount because he will already expect to make less than he has been making, and since he is 32, his contract can be front loaded so the cap hit will be even less.

For those of you who are not familiar with how cap hits work, here’s a quick explanation. The cap hit is the average amount of money per year that a player makes over the duration of his contract. For instance, in the case of Dany Heatley, he could make $7 M for the first 3 years of a contract, and then since he will be getting older and it’s expected that his production will drop off, he can be paid $5 M for a year, then $3 M for a year, then $1 M during the last year of his contract. This an example of front loading a contract since he is making more money in the first few years of it. Keep in mind, these numbers are fictional, and I don’t know what he would really sign for. Next, you add up the total money and divide it by the total years. In this instance, this is a $30 M contact that spans 6 years which equates to a $5 M cap hit. The cap hit is the number that counts against the salary cap.

Obviously it’s hard to predict who will be available, but the lineup I’m posting below would be a potential scenario. My opinions will be changed once I see who actually is available and what trades are made, but at this point I would be okay with this:

Forwards:

Justin Abdelkader ($1.8 M)           Pavel Datsyuk ($6.7 M)                  Dany Heatley ($5.1 M)

Johan Franzen ($3.95 M)              Henrik Zetterberg ($6.08 M)            Gustav Nyquist ($2 M)

Tomas Tatar ($0.84 M)                 Darren Helm ($2.125 M)                 Damien Brunner ($2.5 M)

Drew Miller ($1.35 M)                   Joakim Andersson ($1 M)               Todd Bertuzzi ($2.075 M

Jordin Tootoo ($1.9 M)                  Cory Emmerton ($0.53 M)              Patrick Eaves ($1.2 M)     

Defensemen:

Niklas Kronwall ($4.75 M)             Jonathan Ericsson ($3.25 M)

Jakub Kindl ($1.6 M)                    Danny DeKeyser ($1.35 M)

Kyle Quincey ($3.775 M)              Brendan Smith ($1.3 M)

Carlo Colaiacovo ($2.5 M)             Brian Lashoff ($0.725 M)

Goalies:

Jimmy Howard ($5.29 M)

Jonas Gustavsson ($1.5 M)

Payroll:                               $64,192,879

Salary Cap:                         $64,300,000

Remaining Cap Space:         $117,121

As you can see, we have an entire forward line and a defense pairing left over. Those can either be trade pieces, extra depth for injuries, or fillers if anyone on the depth chart above them is traded. Honestly, I would like to see them make a trade. There are some serviceable players left on those extra lines that eat up a decent chunk of salary. If they can swing some of those players as pieces in a trade for either high draft picks, or a top player/prospect, I would be excited. I understand that the players on the extra lines alone probably could not bring in anything with too much value, but they can still be used to sweeten a deal that involves some of our roster players or prospects. The fact of the matter is, we have too many players under contract, and we have a number of young players pushing for NHL duty. There is too much of a logjam at the bottom of our roster for there not to be a trade in my opinion.

Ken Holland has taken a conservative approach in the past, so I’m not expecting a huge splash this summer, but I do expect more than last summer. No matter what happens, we should have the space for at least one relatively big name free agent, and I think with the cap coming down this year we can get them for a good price. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.

Who do you think should be our free agent target? Is there anyone you think will be bought out that we should target?